We (in WNC) are do for a snowy winter!
Or are we?
The Old Farmer's Almanac has predicted that we will have a higher than normal snowfall this year. The actual prediction from the almanac for my area is:
"Winter will be slightly warmer than normal, with near-normal precipitation and above-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will be in early to mid-January, from late January through early February, and in mid- to late February. The snowiest periods will be in mid-November, late January, and early to mid-February."
The original Farmer's Almanac founded in 1792, Old Farmer's Almanac is a reference book that contains weather forecasts, tide tables, planting charts, astronomical data, recipes, and articles on a number of topics, including gardening, sports, astronomy, and farming. It has been the preeminent authority used by farmers at least since 1816. The Farmer's Almanac gained prominence in 1816 by accurately predicting snow in July. The story goes:
From William A. Sherden's The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions (1997), pp. 49-50.
[The Old Farmer's] Almanac's accurate prediction of winter weather for July 13, 1816 was due to an extraordinary coincidence. Founding editor Thomas became ill just as the 1816 Almanac was going to print. A copy boy informed him that the prediction for July 13 was missing. "Put in anything you want," Thomas told him, so the boy inserted, "Rain, hail, and snow." Upon discovering the joke, Thomas destroyed most of the copies and spent considerable time denying the extreme forecast, which inevitably got into general circulation. But in New England on July 13, 1816, it did in fact "rain, hail and snow" -- unusual weather caused by the 1815 eruption of Mount Tamora in the East Indies. The volcano generated a cooling dust cloud that caused what is called the "Little Ice Age" in New England that summer, during which ponds and lakes never thawed. When the original "forecast" came true, Thomas changed his tune and declared, "I told you so." Judson Hale, the current editor of the Almanac, has called this scenario "one of the earliest and best examples of a subtle skill my uncle always referred to as 'Almanacmanship.'"
So I'm relating this year's prediction and the back story to a woman at a football party at a friends house and she says; "Acorns!"
"Acorns?" I replied.
Yes, apparently when she was growing up an excess amount of acorns on the ground was an indicator of a hard winter with lots of snow. Last winter was reasonably mild and I did not even remember there was an acorn tree in my yard. As you can see in the picture we are inundated with acorns this year.
So I'm telling my mother on her last visit the almanac and acorn stories and she says; "Woolly Caterpillars!"
"Woolly Caterpillars"; I asked?
Yes, when my mom was growing up an increase in the number of woolly caterpillars was the indicator it would be a snowy winter. Last winter I don't recall seeing any woolly caterpillars. I walk Buddy through the neighborhood a lot and this year I'm constantly dodging woolly caterpillars. I don't have any pictures to share and I can't say if they're moving south for the winter but they're out there this year in mass.
I started researching old wives tales used to predict the coming winter weather.
Forecasting in a nutshell:
Hickory nuts and walnuts have a hard shell and a "fruit" surrounding that shell. The story goes that the thicker the outer shell, the worse the winter will be. This theory extends to acorns and the thickness of their shells, and it could be nature's way of protecting the tree species during harsh weather.
Since this is our first year of "Old Wive's Tales" weather prediction I don't really have a frame of reference for the thickness of our acorn shells. All I know is that we sure have a lot of them this year.
Caterpillar colors:
Woolly bear caterpillars are the larval stage of the Isabella moth. They are black with a red-brown band in the middle, and according to folklore, the more black you see on these caterpillars, the harsher the winter will be.
Most of the woolly caterpillars I've come across look very much like the one in the picture, some with even more red than shown which would indicate a milder winter.
According to Donald Lewis, an entomologist at Iowa State University, there is some year-to-year variation in the amount of black hair on these caterpillars, but the differences are caused by age and wetness. Older caterpillars have more black than young ones, and if the fall weather is wet, they will often have more black.
This has been an exceptionally dry fall. We are even having some (California like) forest fires in the outlying areas due to the extreme drought. So maybe we just have a bunch of young caterpillars that haven't been rained on much.
Is color the key?
Picture from my back porch today!
Some people believe that the brighter the leaves are in the fall, the snowier and colder the coming winter will be. Leaf color is actually determined by several things, like the amount of moisture received during the growing season. However, once the days get shorter and the temperatures drop in the fall, the amount of chlorophyll in the leaves decreases, causing the changes in leaf colors we see in the fall.
Last year we had an exceptionally rainy fall and all of the leaves were washed off the trees before they could become vibrantly spectacular resulting in a horrible fall tourist season. Remember the pictures of me raking the leaves? So again I really don't have a good frame of reference for this prediction method. This year has been a much better tourist season because the leaves are staying on the trees longer, although I have had to rake my lawn once already and may have to again before it's all over.
Hornet high-rises:
If you notice hornets, bees, and wasps building their nests higher than usual, like in the tops of trees rather than closer to ground level, a harsh winter with lots of snowfall may be coming.
I get quite a few wasps nests attached to our house. The last one I knocked down was attached to an upstairs window frame which is higher than I've had to deal with so far. I'll have to keep an eye on this from now on.
Fluffy bunnies and squirrels:
If rabbits and squirrels look especially fat in the fall, they may be bulking up for a cold winter. Likewise, if you see squirrels burying nuts at a more furied pace than usual, that may be a sign.
Buddy has been especially diligent in keeping the wild life out of our yard despite my reassurances that it's OK to share. He even chased off a couple of deer the other morning much to my dismay (if I had seen them first before I let Buddy out that morning he would have had to just cross his legs for a while). So it has been difficult to view a good representative sample but I don't think the squirrels really look all that plump this year despite the over abundance of acorns in the yard.
Note: Many of the descriptions above have been plagiarized from the following website:
So what is my prediction?
I predict that I will spend the winter comfortably holed up snuggling with my beautiful bride in front of a nice warm fireplace and reading an unlimited number of books thanks to the kindle apps on our tablets. And about the weather; who really cares?
Happy Holiday Season everyone!
